Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Falling, falling...

I have a colleague who is a pessimist when it comes to the markets, and she has always been. During the unbridled exuberance of last year, she kept on telling me that, "Something has to give, K, you know that, I know that." And I agreed with her, at 20,000 levels most scrips on the exchanges were dramatically overvalued. But the problem with sentiment is simple, there is no mean level when it comes to the exchanges. Either that, or the software that controls a lot of the trades is extremely buggy. Right now, CNBC is flashing that the markets are at their lowest point in 2008, with everyone selling. I won't say the economic fundamentals are all awry, but a lot of people became very rich on very little but ideas, and as usual, it is the small guys that got suckered. Expect recriminations during the Monsoon session.


Anonymous said...

Tell your friend to read what a couple of gentlemen called Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham got to say about stock markets and valuations of companies. Especially the former is still among the living and has some pertinent views on the subject.

I am sorry if it looks like a plug, but your friend could join a couple of online forums like the www.theequitydesk.com and investmentsupergroup on google groups and she will find good stocks at reasonable valuations while the punters sell wholesale.

Anonymous said...

I'm sorry, but could you please stick to what you're good (really good) at? Your readers (now) include people who've known the stock markets long..really, really long. So when I read this kinda post, I'm just glad it's not longer than what it is.

PS - Here's a thought. See how CNBC is flailing at understanding this market. Poor people, Udayan, Mitali, their entire research team are bull market products and have no idea what's going on. It's painfully obvious and reflects in what Udayan says; and also in what he used to write in HT (before he stopped for what I can only assume is before he starts writing for FT).

Udayan wasn't there in two of the three great bear markets in India. And in the third he was just a flunky at CNBC. As an anchor, he's been born and bought up on 5 years of a bull market. Poor guy, he should've heard your friend. Probably he doesn't deserve it. His arrogance hasn't changed. I'm guessing it's because the rumours about the massive amounts of money he made from his on-the-side investments (a.k.a. the Calcutta angle) are true. I mean why else do CNBC anchors, reporters and researchers focus so much on how a stock moves after they say something (or the company mgmt comes on their channel) on CNBC.

All they've done well is make brands of 4 shady people. Bose, Sukhani, Mathew and Gujral - of which one has already been implicated in a stock rigging probe at SEBI.

It's just sad to see a generation of broadcast journalism go waste thanks to an editorial strategy to keep focus restricted to what and when to buy and sell. They didn't learn anything from their more illustrious American parents. And sure as hell were quick to erase the legacy of the ABN days. Sad.

(Hope this comment makes it :)

Anonymous said...

Or better still, ask her to read Nassim Taleb

Anonymous said...

I wonder why Mr. Mukherjee and his ilk are not investigated for insider trading?

If SEBI hasn't figured it out yet, one must assume that they have their hands in the cookie jar as well...

The latest example is Ranbaxy... climbing while the market was falling. almost a full day before the takeover news hit the wires.

Weird huh?