At 1237 hrs, Tuesday June 13 the BSE Sensex is down over 400 points and flirting with breaching the 9000 mark from the wrong side. The market was inherently overvalued - thats what the analysts said. Over at Lower Parel, TV Equity pundits wear glum faces, talk about how there is good value in the market and how the bears are back. Over in Delhi, journalists talk of a scam - blaming FII's and the policies of the government and one even tried to link up a scam between BCCL and the Sensex crash, thankfully her Ed-in-Chief spotted this in time and pulled the copy (Note, this lady was asked to move on from a pink BCCL paper). And our dear Finance Minister acquires yet another frown on his face. Hey, a few months ago, heck six weeks ago people were talking 15,000. Now we're looking at a sub 9,000 Sensex.
Is the India story over? Naah. Not by a long shot. But what is going on in the equities markets? Honestly, they're just bouncing around a bit, like one of those crazy balls. Maybe, the Sensex has been inspired by the Teamgeist. All I can say is that the markets now are beyond comprehension - and I feel for those poor MBA students who are just taking up their jobs in the financial sector. Welcome to the real world baby!
Update 1 : At 1417 hours the market is back climbing again and is down only 338 points (only 338 points, I don't believe I said that!), however at around 1335 hours the market actually dipped below the 9,000 and touched its intra-day low of 8993.58. For a moment, please remember that this market has crossed 12,500 less than a month ago - before the crash on May 15 began a sequence of events that have led to the market shedding a quarter of its value. Ouch!
Update 2 : The markets have closed just above the 9,000 mark, after falling through for a few seconds around 1335 the markets stayed above 9,000 for the rest of the day, but it still closed down over 400 points. It is a bit weird come to think of it, companies really haven't done so badly, and global markets are not on meltdown mood - everybody was bullish and went on a buying binge, think of this as one of those really intense Margarita parties. The only problem was that people were behaving like they were 19 and in college again, eventually you do have to throw up and feel awful. The head hurts for a bit and it does take a while to get back to normalcy. Fundamentals are strong - OK, so Chidu will still try and tax everything he can get his hands on, but other than that this market does look very well priced right now.
Thats it on the market, and I doubt it will fall below 9,000 for any sustained period of time. Invest wisely.
Also, on another note, nine years ago, I lost a friend (the guy used to travel in the same school bus as I did and was a tremendously smart and gifted individual, whose life was callously cut short) in a needless tragedy in a cinema hall in South Delhi (PDF). However, the man whose company was responsible for the building still cavorts freely and is darling of the Page 3 media in this country. Says a lot about us, doesn't it?
My main memory of that disaster was going to the Lodhi Road crematorium the next day, and being greeted by the most horrendous and awful sight of my life. Have you guys ever seen a mass funeral, particularly a mass Hindu funeral? It is a sight which I really don't care to remember, I feel sick thinking about it right now. I can remember breaking down over there - twelve pyres and the overwhelming stench of flesh. I've been paranoid about attending funerals ever since.
I also remember that the current Prime Minister of the country came there that day, yet because the man in question is a old-time Congressi, I doubt any thing will ever happen to him.
I will never forget Uphaar and the lives that were lost there.