Taking bets?

last night I had a bowl of soup with an old friend, a full-time techie, one-time journalist and a veteran blogger who has done the rounds of several media groups. In his inimitable self, he spoke about the mistakes that several groups - but two large television groups in particular have made - especially regarding their insane online strategies. the massive portal strategy of one group is sinking and the other group has hired two has-beens with horrible track records to run their online operation - which is on a Yahoo-esque spree of launching inane sites!
Anyway, it would be a lie to say that there is no cash out there - there is a lot of cash out there - it is just that people are holding onto it for dear life. And this means that quite a few TV channels are finding it rather difficult to survive. The only people in any position of power - the dominant players in the language media papers and magazines.
So if teh bad times continue for a another six-eight months will any TV channel shut down? Do you think they will? Comments welcome.

Be worried

Forget the run on banks on the markets the last few years have seen some very unviable investments in the media business. One of the largest media organisations in the country – NDTV –has declared several consecutive quarters of abysmal results abnd the situation isn’t better elsewhere. Even though several print media organisations have managed to keep costs in check – the current meltdown hasn’t seen newsprint prices collapse – as yet, but I am worried about the precarious state of health of certain overleveraged print firms (one magazine publisher desperately looking for a buyer in particular). And we’re not talking about Bennett here, which remains India’s richest media company (can’t be so sure about the entire Private Treaties bit now - but that applies to everyone who got into that bed, and those who got in later got shafted the most), but I’m seeing thinner and thinner issues. Advertising is yet to collapse, but I’ve got a bad feeling about this winter.
And I’m not talking of 20-something’s losing their jobs, we’re talking of 40-something’s with families losing their jobs (as happened at the ill-fated Sakal Times). Unless and until you have demonstrated value, or at least measurable value, to your organisation, be scared, very scared. I’m not scared for my job, but I’m worried for a lot of folks I know. The stories are getting more and more frightening, one recently founded media company which we wrote about a lot earlier this year is not able to meet its second round commitments and with investors cutting their taps to PE firms (the benami way of owning media firms) the troubles will only get worse in 2009. There are already unofficial hiring freezes in place in all major organisations and while the good journalist will still get a job, even those opportunities will dry up.
Remember one thing – an ‘Offer Letter’ and an ‘Appointment Letter’ are two different things altogether. Hey, if you think I’m being a pessimist, I just looked out my balcony and the Delhi skyline is unnaturally clear. And today is chotte Diwali. I think we all need a drink. The good times are over, if you work in a company whose revenue model is flimsy (lifestyle advertising based for example and there are several - backed by realty money then forget it) or still cash-flow negative, you should be worried. Forget new launches (Forbes, Fortune and DNA Bangalore), even recently launched products and channels should worried – hell if you made a statement like this you should be frightened. The recent slience during the various 'Fashion Week's' was an indication that 'Lifestyle' is not a business plan.
Sorry to sound so down on the day before Diwali, maybe because I’m listening a lot more rock – even though I didn’t care much for Death Magnetic, I seemed to like Black Ice. And if you believe this article in The Guardian, if AC/DC are #1 again, times are really bad. And you must try and listen to the new Oasis album.
So go home (I wrote ‘how gone’ there – I’m now convinced I’m dyslexic), open a bottle of nice wine and drink yourself silly (and downturn or not, this is the season for interesting things to flow down from the northern hills) – or just go play cards somewhere. Call a crazy variation like that silly ‘Waterfall with Acid’ (which I still don’t get) that a friend made me play.
Listen, if you know me or meet me, you know that I'm a fairly optimistic person on most things other than my own personal life, which is a frikkin' minefield, but I made my own bed there. Hell, I still believe that Arsenal can win the English Premier League and that Lerwis Hamilton will not mess up at Interlagos. I believed that Nadal could win Wimbledon, but this time last year I realised that things just didn't add up (I wrote this post three years ago). While the media dissed cocaine users (only Delhi reporters mind you, some Bombay reporters knew better for reasons best left unsaid), a lot of the madness can only be explained if it is attributed to crazed cokeheads, because only on coke can you get yourself into such doo-doo (GWB might have given up the bottle, but I'm not sure he gave up the powder). No I'm serious, the last four years saw an explosion in cocaine usage in India - it became the drug of choice, even in media firms.
And see what happened!
Anyway, Happy Diwali folks, and sorry for the negativity. Take care!
-K

Nice article

I've always found Scott Carney's articles in Wired very informative, surprising that the international media often covers India better than we cover ourselves. Of course, they don't need to face political masters or advertisers in the same way that we do (though very often some articles seem to have a surprising lilt to the left and use far too many cliches, but not all of them), but as I was reading this month's magazine, I found this article on the land mafia in Bangalore very good. However, if you're reading this Scott, my favourite article of yours was this one last year.
After attending a rather insane cards party last night, and though I was priced out of playing, I am not so sure the economy is as bad as I thought it was. Or maybe it was the last hurrah before things get really bad. The TiE conference at the Maurya was one large denial session though some at the dinner pointed out that this would be of the last 'free daaru' parties for a while. Though I doubt we'll drink less Scotch! That said, I believe that some networks are looking at cutting back 'subsidiary' channels that they had started over the past few months. Some networks, including one funded by real estate isn't even taking off. I feel really sorry for the chaps who quit for huge sums of money... Anyway, I won't badger a former target but their 'Government' page a few days ago was horrific - advertising in the guise of editorial content. Ouch! Can't really reclaim the bastion like that.
PS: Note to Vogue India - Victoria Beckham??? Why? If you had to do a WAG - why not Cheryl Cole or Louise Redknapp.

Whatever you say...

The government might put its head in sand and pretend that everything is still hunky-dory but just look at these charts and then pretend that everything is OK. Denial works if you are the parent of a teenage daughter, or a son that smokes far too much pot. What you can't see, you don't worry about. But these numbers are in clear view of Chiddu. Who must still be too busy looking up skirts as usual after he has finished counting money. And the Sangh is more interested in going after Christians than the bigger picture - wonder how many of their kids went to convent schools?
Anyway back to the numbers. Since January 2, 2008 - the first day of trading on the markets the BSE Sensex has lost 44 per cent of its value. That is a lot in any book, and even if you think that the India story does not depend on the few who make a pile of money from the exchanges, it is hard to deny that we live in difficult times.
I got a lot of positive notes and comments about the Vodka post - though hints I gave there allowed even more people to figure out who I was. Anyway, if you are in Delhi anytime soon and want to have an interesting lunch, and money is no issue, please do try out Varq at the Taj Mansingh. I did lunch there again and I must admit I was impressed yet again. Food might be expensive throughout Delhi, but my god, the city has a ton of options. Plus, I might be Hyderabad next week, and I'm travelling there after a while (spending a night, rather - plus I'm looking forward to the new airport) so if anybody would like top suggest something interesting to do in the evenings, please either email me or leave a comment.